Monday, January 26, 2009

In my dubious career I've had a few different vocations. At one time I worked as a laborer doing rehab construction in Philadelphia, in the general vicinity of the Penn campus. A plumber I worked with once told me that there are only two things a plumber has to know, "shit flows downhill, and you get paid on Friday".

He was half-right. It's flowing downhill for sure, if you look at the daily announcements of layoffs by downstream companies in the economy, but nobody's getting paid on Friday except the banks, to whom we have given $350 billion to pad their balance sheets, with no accountability or urgency to track the money trail.

Financials, manufacturers, wholesalers, distributors, suppliers, retailers, services, and all their supply chains have caught the layoff flu, and it appears there is no end in sight. What's a no-job traveler to do? 

Yes, it's bad, but consider our numbers today compared to the past. John Campanelli in the Cleveland Plain Dealer points out a few of these in today's edition: 12 month inflation rate in 1980 was 14.6%, in 2008 1.1%; decline in the Dow 1930-1932 was 75%, from 2006 to 2008 18.1%. The one that grabbed me was the percentage of the economy's jobs that were lost: 1980's recession, 3%, this recession, 1.7%.

Now we all know that good statisticians can make the numbers dance, and here's the problem with that last number: what is the denominator of total jobs in the 80's versus today? How many real, living, breathing human beings are out of work? Here's a fact from the Bureau of Labor StatisticsIn 2008, payroll employment fell by 2.6 million, the largest annual employment decrease, in absolute terms, since 1945. Remember what happened in 1945? The armed forces discharged a whole lot of employees, and the WWII military/industrial complex tooled down, eliminating jobs in that supply chain. In my opinion, those anomalies negatively skew the 1945 data, making our current situation that much more devastating. It's a different economy, folks, than we've ever encountered before. The house of cards has fallen.

I spoke with a headhunter last week who told me to stop reading the news, and focus on the fact that there is only one job out there: the one I am destined to find. I think I'll take his advice.

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